5 Theses For 2026

5 Theses for 2026 begins with a look back at 2025, which wasn’t loud in the way previous crypto years were.

No single narrative dominated.

Absence of retail frenzy during the year.

No obvious “copy-paste” playbook worked.

This year marked a transition:

• From speculation -> expression
• From degens -> allocators
• From chaos -> structure

Backed with evidence from 5 charts from 2025, here is how I’m positioning for 2026👇

1. Prediction Markets: A Key Theme in the 5 Theses for 2026

Prediction markets are becoming one of crypto’s clearest use cases -especially as more people look to express views on everything from politics to pop culture with skin in the game.

@Polymarket and @Kalshi‘s partnerships with major news outlets drove a fresh wave of adoption and legitimacy in 2025.

When people think of crypto, they’ll think beyond tokens – and prediction markets will be top of mind.

2026 thesis:

• Continued UX and tooling improvements in H1 2026
• Sharper informational edge for users
• Consolidation among platforms as liquidity concentrates in H2 2026

2. The Exit of Widespread Degen Culture in the 5 Theses for 2026

The trenches are thinning.

As regulatory clarity improves and institutional capital edges onchain, liquidity becomes:

• More selective
• More patient
• Less willing to punt endlessly on zero sum memes

The result of this?

• Lower activity in hyper speculative corners
• Reduced liquidity for low quality launches
• A smaller, tighter group of trench participants

Degens won’t disappear but they’ll stop defining the market.

2026 thesis:

Speculation to mature away from trenches and into other subject matters (less memes and to more fundamentally driven assets)

3. Explosive growth for regulatory compliant DeFi

DeFi in 2025 evolved beyond simple yield chasing.

We saw:

• Yield bearing & composable stablecoins
• Curated vault strategies
• Institutional grade risk frameworks

As regulatory pressure eases rather than tightens, institutions aren’t asking if they should use DeFi – but how. They will seek alternative measures for higher yield generation, not the trenches, but models which are more familiar (i.e. lending markets)

2026 thesis:

Those that win in the long run are those that speak TradFi language in the DeFi suit – boring on the surface – and unstoppable underneath.

3. Explosive growth for regulatory compliant DeFi

DeFi in 2025 evolved beyond simple yield chasing.

We saw:

• Yield bearing & composable stablecoins
• Curated vault strategies
• Institutional grade risk frameworks

As regulatory pressure eases rather than tightens, institutions aren’t asking if they should use DeFi – but how. They will seek alternative measures for higher yield generation, not the trenches, but models which are more familiar (i.e. lending markets)

2026 thesis:

Those that win in the long run are those that speak TradFi language in the DeFi suit – boring on the surface – and unstoppable underneath.

4. Bitcoin DeFi Growth in the 5 Theses for 2026

Bitcoin-native DeFi is has constantly been on the innovative ride.

2025 saw:

• Bitcoin SDKs
• BTC-native DeFi vaults emerge
• Continuous experimentation with yield generation on BTC

As regulations ease (banks holding crypto, advisors recommending allocations), demand for Bitcoin exposure grows – but so does the desire for capital efficiency.

And with such moves, money supply fixated on BTC accumulation will seek alternative methods for yield generation apart from holding for price appreciation.

Holding BTC for appreciation alone won’t be enough.

2026 thesis:

Capital anchored to BTC will increasingly seek:

• Yield
• Structured strategies
• Risk-managed BTC native DeFi

Bitcoin DeFi TVL chart up and to the right.

5. Privacy becomes a necessity

The steady climb of shielded asset via @Zcash shows that onchain privacy is no longer niche – it’s necessity.

Us humans use traditional banking for 2 main aspects:

• Financial options -> payments / loans / financial savings / remittances
• Security -> financial privacy – do not want strangers to know how much we have, and nor want keep stash of monies under our beds

As traditional capital moves onchain, it expects the same flexibility and confidentiality as TradFi systems. Likewise, retail users who are willing to come aboard crypto, will also seek familiarity of financial options and security.

2026 thesis:

Expecting more:

• Privacy related launches in terms of privacy chains and privacy wallets
• A higher adoption rate of wallets with embedded privacy screening and masking compared to those without

How i’m thinking about 2026

One of the biggest mistakes heading into 2026 is looking for new narratives.

The real edge is recognising which 2025 trends are irreversible.

We should position early around structure, compliance, and information advantages.

I’ll be sharing more chart led theses like this as the year unfolds – across DeFi, RWAs, prediction markets, and Bitcoin native finance.

If you’re thinking long term, you’re in the right room.

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