CLARITY Act April Odds Hit 69% on Polymarket

CLARITY Act April Odds Build as Senate Vote Approaches

The CLARITY Act has progressed steadily through 2025–2026, moving from House approval (294–134 vote) to ongoing Senate negotiations, where key debates around stablecoin rules and regulatory scope delayed timelines. Recent signals, including a potential April Senate Banking Committee markup, have driven Polymarket odds to around 69%, reflecting cautious optimism despite earlier fluctuations between ~50% and ~85% as negotiations evolved.

This momentum is largely expected but still uncertain. Broader trends, including a pro-crypto policy shift, institutional demand, and pressure to clarify SEC vs. CFTC oversight, have supported the bill’s progress. However, the timeline remains tight, as passing, reconciling, and signing legislation within April would require accelerated coordination, making the current odds a reflection of optimism rather than certainty.

FIT21 Precedent Mirrors Current CLARITY Timeline

A closely comparable situation occurred with the FIT21 Act in 2024, which followed a nearly identical legislative path. It passed the House with strong bipartisan support (279–136) but stalled in the Senate despite early momentum. The CLARITY Act builds directly on this framework, carrying forward the same goal of defining SEC and CFTC roles while adding refinements shaped by earlier setbacks. This makes the current April 2026 push less of a new development and more of a second attempt at the same regulatory breakthrough.

The outcome and market reaction during FIT21 provide a clear reference point. Crypto markets responded positively to the House vote, with short-term price gains driven by optimism around regulatory clarity. However, momentum faded as Senate delays emerged, leading to choppy price action and renewed uncertainty. The same pattern is now visible, with Polymarket odds reflecting optimism, but history suggests final passage depends on clearing persistent Senate bottlenecks rather than early-stage momentum alone.

FIT21 Market Reaction Sets Expectations For CLARITY

The closest precedent is the FIT21 House passage on May 22, 2024, which triggered a short-term bullish reaction across crypto markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum posted modest gains, while total market sentiment improved on expectations of regulatory clarity. However, the move lacked follow-through, as prices turned sideways in the following weeks when Senate progress stalled, reinforcing a pattern of initial optimism followed by uncertainty-driven consolidation.

On Crypto Twitter, sentiment shifted sharply positive, with major accounts calling the vote a “historic win” and highlighting bipartisan support (279–136). Engagement surged as narratives around U.S. leadership and the end of regulation-by-enforcement gained traction. Still, this enthusiasm faded as Senate delays emerged, leading to mixed sentiment and renewed caution—establishing a recurring cycle now reflected in current CLARITY Act expectations.

Key Dates And Risks For CLARITY Act April Odds

The CLARITY Act now enters a decisive phase as the Senate returns from recess on April 13, 2026, with a targeted Banking Committee markup expected in the second half of April. This window is critical, as analysts warn that failure to advance the bill by the end of April could significantly reduce the chances of passage in 2026. If the markup succeeds, the next steps include a Senate floor vote in May, followed by reconciliation with the House version and final presidential approval.

Key risks remain centered on execution and policy disagreements. Ongoing debates around stablecoin yield rules and regulatory jurisdiction could delay or derail progress, while the tight legislative calendar adds pressure. A successful markup would likely boost market confidence and increase passage odds, but another delay could trigger a sharp sentiment reversal, mirroring past patterns where early optimism faded into prolonged uncertainty.