Bernstein Sees Prediction Markets Hitting $1 Trillion by 2030

Background and Context

This forecast builds on momentum that is already visible in the market. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, prediction market volumes surged sharply, with Polymarket handling billions of dollars in trades. Notably, its market pricing often proved more accurate than several traditional opinion polls.

That momentum then carried into 2025. Total market volume reportedly quadrupled to around $44 billion to $64 billion. Moreover, the pace has accelerated further in 2026, with year-to-date trading already crossing $60 billion, which has already exceeded the full previous year.

Consequently, Bernstein now expects prediction market volume to reach nearly $240 billion for 2026 alone. Regulatory clarity has acted as a major catalyst. Kalshi received approval from the CFTC for event contracts, which significantly improved market legitimacy. In addition, blockchain-based settlement rails and exchange partnerships have made access easier for both retail and institutional participants.

Historically, the sector has never reached this scale before. Prediction markets first appeared with the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988, mainly for election forecasting. Later, Intrade gained traction during the 2000s and early 2010s. However, regulatory pressure kept the industry niche for years. After Intrade shut down in 2013, volumes remained relatively small. By contrast, the current cycle marks the first period of sustained multi-billion-dollar monthly liquidity across politics, sports, macro events, and global news.

Meanwhile, the market reaction has remained highly positive. The 2024 election boom triggered strong venture funding activity, pushed platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to multi-billion-dollar valuations, and supported related public equities. Similarly, recent Bernstein and Cantor Fitzgerald notes helped lift Robinhood and Coinbase shares as investors priced in future distribution gains.

Robinhood and Coinbase Positioned as Distribution Winners

Both Bernstein and Cantor Fitzgerald identify Robinhood Markets and Coinbase as the clearest public-market beneficiaries of this trend. Robinhood already integrates thousands of Kalshi contracts directly into its app. Therefore, it can use its large retail customer base and simple user interface to bring prediction markets to mainstream users.

At the same time, Coinbase appears well-positioned to capture crypto-native and institutional flows. This includes hedging demand tied to crypto assets, macroeconomic events, and broader event-driven markets.

Furthermore, analysts see meaningful upside for both stocks. Some estimates suggest potential upside of 80% or more if these platforms successfully integrate products and capture even a modest share of the projected market volume.

Outlook: Drivers, Risks, and the Road to $1 Trillion

Looking ahead, growth will likely come from expansion beyond sports and election markets. In particular, the market is shifting toward broader information markets covering macro indicators, corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and cultural trends. Additionally, rising institutional participation could strengthen liquidity and improve market depth. Even if fee compression occurs over time, the sheer scale of projected volume could still support strong revenue growth.

However, several risks remain. Regulators could increase scrutiny, especially around event contracts and market structure. Likewise, concerns around manipulation, information asymmetry, and retail speculation could weigh on adoption. Competition from traditional sportsbooks and financial trading platforms may also intensify. Moreover, platforms must continue improving user experience and retention if they want to sustain current momentum.