Peter Thiel with the recent ETHZilla exit has revived claims that he “always sells at the wrong time.” We take a look at this claim.
Sahil ThakurFeb 19, 2026, 5:15 AM UTC
Author: Sahil Thakur
A new wave of “bad timing” commentary around Peter Thiel followed the Feb 17, 2026 SEC disclosure. The filing showed that Thiel-linked entities had fully exited their once-material stake in ETHZilla, ticker ETHZ, by Dec 31, 2025. By then, the stock had already fallen about 97 percent from its 2025 peak.
However, the broader record is more mixed. Thiel’s track record shows both strong timing and weaker timing. For example, one of the most cited trades involved Founders Fund. The firm wound down most of an eight-year crypto position by March 2022. Reports estimate roughly $1.8 billion in gains. This happened shortly before the broader crypto drawdown accelerated.
In contrast, his more visible exits in narrative-driven public markets attract more scrutiny. This includes the recent ETHZilla exit. It also includes periodic insider sales at publicly traded companies. As a result, online commentary often frames these moves as “selling the bottom” or “leaving multiples on the table.” Yet in many cases, the investment may still have generated a profit.
Moreover, the negative sentiment is not only about portfolio timing. It also reflects long-standing controversy around Thiel’s political views. He has openly criticized aspects of democratic politics. In addition, he has played a high-profile role in Republican politics, including support for Donald Trump. Because of this, critics often view him as a polarizing tech power figure. Therefore, any visible sell decision tends to amplify negative interpretations.
A more balanced reading suggests that the claim “he always exits wrong” does not fit the evidence. First, some of Thiel and Founders Fund’s best-known exits were well timed. Second, venture exits often face structural constraints. Fund life cycles, distribution requirements, and risk limits shape decisions. Third, many viral examples confuse opportunity cost with actual loss. In other words, making less than the maximum possible return is not the same as losing money.
ETHZilla exit overview
The latest ETHZilla exit refers to a Schedule 13G amendment signed Feb 17, 2026. The filing shows that Thiel and several affiliated entities reported zero shares beneficially owned as of Dec 31, 2025. This means they fully exited the position during the fourth quarter of 2025. The filing did not disclose specific transaction dates or sale prices.
The structure of the filing shows Thiel as the control person or manager within the reporting chain. The chain culminates with “Peter Thiel” signing as a reporting person.
The public record shows several key steps.
Key milestones related to Thiel-linked Schedule 13G filings
Thiel-linked entities file an initial 13G on the legacy issuer (prior to the ETHZilla rebrand), disclosing 11,592,241 shares representing 7.5% beneficial ownership.
The company executes a 10-for-1 reverse stock split, materially changing share comparability across prior and subsequent filings.
A Schedule 13G amendment reflects the new post-split structure. Thiel-linked entities continue to report ownership above the 5% threshold.
A final amendment (filed Feb 17, accepted Feb 18) reports zero shares beneficially owned as of Dec 31, 2025. The filing does not disclose specific sale dates or transaction prices.
Deal terms
There was no announced block sale or press release describing a single transaction. Instead, the exit appears through beneficial ownership reporting. The filing does not list pricing, counterparties, or transaction mechanics. Therefore, it is unclear whether the exit occurred through open-market sales, block trades, or internal fund transfers.
Official statements
Mainstream coverage treated the story as filing driven. There is no indication in the cited reporting that Thiel or the affiliated entities issued a contemporaneous public statement.
Market reaction
Coverage around Feb 18, 2026 noted an immediate negative market reaction. Reports described pre-market or early-session declines. Observers also framed this reaction against ETHZ’s sharp decline from its 2025 peak. In addition, stress across ETH treasury equities shaped sentiment.
Context: ETHZilla’s capital structure and treasury activity
Separately, ETHZilla disclosed significant crypto-related corporate finance actions in late 2025. These included funding transactions and notes. The company also sold ETH to manage debt and fund buybacks. As a result, investors focused on leverage, liquidity, and reflexivity within ETH treasury equities.
Peter Thiel is an entrepreneur and investor. He built his career through founding roles in major Silicon Valley companies. At the same time, he engages in political and ideological debates. As a result, markets often interpret his investment moves through a reputational lens.
Career arc and major roles
Thiel’s first major outcome came with PayPal. He co-founded the company. In 2002, eBay acquired PayPal in a stock-for-stock deal valued at $1.5 billion at announcement. This exit helped create the so-called PayPal diaspora. Many former employees and founders later built influential technology companies.
Later, Thiel co-founded Palantir. He has served as chairman since 2003. Over time, Palantir became one of the most prominent data analytics companies in Silicon Valley. Therefore, his reputation rests not only on investing, but also on long-term company building.
Public political views
Thiel’s politics shape how the public views him. In a widely cited 2009 essay, he argued that democratic politics was unlikely to produce libertarian outcomes. He also questioned how democracy and freedom relate to each other.
Later, he became a visible supporter of Trump-era Republican politics. In 2016, he spoke at the Republican National Convention. Because of this involvement, media coverage often connects his business decisions to his political identity.
However, his political engagement has not followed a simple upward path. In 2023, Reuters reported that he told associates he did not plan to donate to political candidates in 2024. This signaled a shift, or at least a pause, in direct campaign funding.
Thiel’s connection to crypto unfolded in phases.
First, Founders Fund and Thiel-linked capital invested in crypto and crypto-equity bets well before the 2021 market peak. The most cited example involves the reported wind-down of most crypto holdings by March 2022. Financial press coverage estimates about $1.8 billion in gains. Notably, this exit occurred before the broader crypto downturn accelerated.
Second, Founders Fund reportedly returned to token buying in late summer and early fall 2023. Reuters reported a $200 million allocation split between bitcoin and ether. Therefore, observers often frame this move as a re-entry ahead of the next bullish phase, although exact realized returns remain undisclosed.
In addition, Thiel personally joined the investor syndicate backing Block.one, the company behind EOS, in 2018. This reflected venture-style exposure to crypto infrastructure rather than only liquid tokens.
Successful investments
Many venture investments remain private. Entry prices often stay undisclosed. Exits may occur in stages. Therefore, public assessments of “success” rely on documented cases or credibly reported profit figures.
Major wins in the public record
The clearest example is Thiel’s early investment in Facebook. In 2004, he invested $500,000. Later, around the 2012 IPO and lock-up expiry, he sold substantial share blocks. Reporting indicates that total proceeds exceeded $1 billion. As a result, this investment stands as one of the most successful early-stage tech bets in modern venture history.
Another cornerstone is PayPal’s sale to eBay. The transaction created significant liquidity for founders and early shareholders. The SEC-filed exhibit details the stock-for-stock structure and valuation basis. Consequently, this exit anchored Thiel’s early reputation and capital base.
Crypto successes
The March 2022 crypto wind-down by Founders Fund often serves as a case study in cycle timing. Multiple outlets cite the roughly $1.8 billion figure. They also emphasize that the exit occurred before the crash intensified. Therefore, commentators frequently describe it as a well-timed trade.
Similarly, reporting about the $200 million token purchases in 2023 often frames the move as a timely re-entry. However, public sources do not disclose realized gains from that allocation alone.
ETHZilla, ticker ETHZ, is the clearest current case behind the “exited at the wrong time” label. Thiel-linked entities disclosed a meaningful position in 2025. Later, they reported a full exit completed by year-end 2025. By then, the stock had already fallen sharply from earlier highs. Multiple outlets highlighted this sequence after the February 2026 filing. As a result, critics framed the move as poor timing.
Theranos is another widely cited failure. Peter Thiel invested $500,000 in early funding rounds. Later, the company collapsed amid fraud revelations. Consequently, equity holders faced severe losses. Public reporting does not always specify individual realized losses. However, the collapse implies significant capital impairment for investors.
Crypto-related failures
ETHZilla also fits within crypto-adjacent exposure. The company operated as a corporate ETH treasury equity. Therefore, its drawdown links directly to crypto market volatility. Current reporting treats this as the primary crypto-linked setback associated with Thiel.
In contrast, some venture-style crypto exposures fall into a gray area. For example, Thiel participated in the investor syndicate backing Block.one, the company behind EOS. Public records confirm his involvement. However, they do not clearly disclose realized profit or loss. Because of that, it is more accurate to describe the outcome as opaque rather than definitively label it a failure.
Exit timing criticism carries unusual force in Peter Thiel’s case. Three structural factors explain this.
First, his visible exits often involve high-narrative assets. These include Facebook, Palantir, and now ETHZilla. Retail investors and social media communities closely track insider activity in such names. They treat 13D and 13G filings as signals. As a result, people blur the line between portfolio management and moral judgment.
Second, Thiel’s ideological profile shapes interpretation. He has publicly criticized aspects of democratic politics. He also aligned himself with Trump-era Republican politics. Because of this, online audiences often cast him as either a villain or a hero. Therefore, any filing-driven trade story spreads quickly and attracts polarized reactions.
Third, many observers misunderstand venture and insider liquidity mechanics. For example, insiders often sell shares after an IPO to diversify. Yet critics may frame these sales as weak conviction. In reality, diversification is standard practice. However, social media narratives simplify this nuance.
Concrete examples where timing optics were negative
Public reporting shows that Thiel sold large blocks of Facebook shares around the IPO and shortly after the lock-up period. He sold at prices below later trading levels. In hindsight, Facebook’s stock rose significantly over time. Therefore, critics describe the move as “selling early” or “missing compounding.”
However, the investment still generated extraordinary returns on capital. The sale did not represent a loss. It represented profit realization.
Barron’s reported that Thiel sold hundreds of millions of dollars of Palantir stock in late September and early October 2024. The average sale price was in the mid-30 dollar range. Later reporting referenced the stock reaching triple-digit levels in early 2025.
As a result, commentators framed the sale as “leaving multiples behind.” Yet the narrative often ignores cost basis. If the shares were acquired at much lower prices, the sale still locked in large gains.
ETHZilla presents different optics. In this case, coverage of the exit coincided with the stock’s collapse from earlier highs. The Schedule 13G amendment disclosed zero shares as of Dec 31, 2025. However, it did not disclose exact sale prices.
Because of that gap, the market filled in assumptions. Many observers interpreted the move as capitulation near the bottom. Unlike Facebook or Palantir, the story does not center on missed upside. Instead, it centers on drawdown.
The strongest counterexample remains Founders Fund’s reported March 2022 crypto wind-down. Multiple outlets describe the move as well timed and highly profitable. Therefore, the same capital base associated with Thiel also demonstrates timing skill.
In addition, SEC-triggered disclosures create a selective sample. The public sees trades that cross reporting thresholds. It does not see the full portfolio. It also does not see private secondaries, internal fund transfers, or partial liquidity events.
Selected Thiel and Thiel-linked exits and reductions that became publicly visible
What public filings allow us to state:
A strict “current portfolio” view is limited. Most venture holdings are private. Therefore, they do not appear in public equity-style filings. Still, a few exposures remain visible through regulatory forms.
Thiel Macro LLC
Thiel Macro LLC filed a Form 13F for the quarter ended Dec 31, 2025, on Feb 17, 2026. The information table total value shows zero. This suggests no reportable long 13F holdings at that quarter-end snapshot, or possibly only non-economic placeholders.
ETHZilla
Thiel-linked entities reported zero beneficial ownership as of Dec 31, 2025 in the February 2026 Schedule 13G/A. Therefore, based on public filings, the position was fully exited by year-end 2025.
BitMine
Thiel-linked entities disclosed 5,094,000 shares, or 9.1 percent, in a July 2025 Schedule 13G. Later, a Nov 14, 2025 Schedule 13G/A reported 2,547,001 shares, or about 0.9 percent, as of Sep 30, 2025.
Because ownership dropped below 5 percent, additional sales after that date may not require further 13G amendments. As a result, public filings alone cannot confirm current ownership levels beyond Sep 30, 2025.
The claim that Peter Thiel is “infamous for exiting at the wrong time” works better as a narrative than as a consistent fact pattern. The current ETHZilla episode fits the bad timing template. The public learned of the full exit while the stock sat far below prior highs. In addition, the filing did not disclose sale prices. Therefore, observers filled the gap with negative assumptions.
However, the broader record complicates that story. The same Thiel-linked ecosystem produced one of the most cited well-timed crypto exits. Founders Fund reportedly wound down most of its crypto holdings in March 2022 and generated about $1.8 billion. Because that move preceded a deeper market downturn, many describe it as strong cycle timing.
Therefore, a balanced assessment requires nuance. First, some exits look poor in hindsight, especially when later price peaks make earlier sales appear premature. Second, venture and insider liquidity rarely allow perfect timing. Fund structures, diversification needs, and disclosure rules shape decisions. Third, Thiel’s highly polarized public profile amplifies every financial move. As a result, markets and social media often read portfolio actions as cultural signals rather than routine capital management decisions.
